Tag Archives: housing slump

Memphis Real Estate Sales Report – "All Real Estate is Local"

Is the real estate market getting better? If you listen to the National Association of REALTORS chief economist, Lawrence Yun, we are past the bottom of the market, and the rest of the year looks great for the real estate market. Well, I am waiting for the numbers to turn around. It is good to be positive, but that positivity should have SOME basis. Its like saying gas prices won’t get any higher, and they will be coming down the rest of the year.
The new catch phrase in the real estate establishment is “all real estate is local”. You don’t look at the national weather; you look at the local weather- duh. While the the official REALTOR news seems to, somehow, indicate some other result, local stats indicate we are still in a down market. Sellers are going to have to come to grips with declining prices (median price in our local market down 14.2% year to date through April, from 2007, and total sales off 18.2% for that period). Check out the most recent comprehensive Home Sales Report from MAAR. Buyers seem to have a good grip of the situation and are making offers that reflect market conditions.
To drill down to even more local numbers, see page 3 of the report for area details. Most of the dramatic drops in median prices seem to reflect foreclosure/REO sales. If you have foreclosed or bank owned properties in your neighborhood, they DO impact the values of surrounding homes.

I Would Love to Buy a Home, But I am Getting Cold Feet

Here are examples of what well-qualified home buyers are saying about the Memphis Real Estate Market on a daily basis: “Well, I haven’t decided not to buy a home yet.” (Is there a positive commitment in there somewhere?) or “A guy who lives in this neighborhood told me this is a bad time to buy.” (Who wouldn’t prefer vacant houses and for sale signs in their neighborhood over occupied houses?), and of course various variations of the “I am waiting for the market to bottom out or prices to drop a lot lower before I commit” scenario. We won’t know the bottom until we have passed it and prices are trending upward again for a significant period of time.
These folks fit the same financial profile of buyers 2 years ago who were willing to forego negotiations because they had found their dream home and they wanted it Right Now! I show buyers homes now, knowing that they have renting in the backs of their minds. A spin-off on renting: leases are more iron-clad, and landlords are less willing to let tenants out of a lease, should they change their minds and decide to buy.
Public opinion and the media have managed to induce paranoia into the mostly stable Memphis market. MAAR’s Hop Off the Fence campaign has lots of merit, and the site is worth a look for agents and consumers alike.
I don’t expect much more price correction downward except in certain niches. I show and preview a lot of properties, and there are great deals out there. Yes, there will be more foreclosures, and more bad news about the sub-prime crisis, but the inherent value of real estate is still there, and Realtors and consumers must differentiate between home ownership and the bad loans problems of others.

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